2026 Season Week 8
All Barkley and No Bite
Dear Alacritous Members of the Dana Burger Dynasty League,
Week 7 is in the books and so we are officially at the halfway point in the season. The AI-generated power rankings have actually adjusted and are quite good; they nail Todd's evaluation this week pretty accurately. As the owner of his 2027 1st round pick, I am just thankful for Cam Ward and his prolific play.
In other news, the Dana Burger Cup moves forward, with upsets across the board. The top 4 seeds all lost! Lucas, as a top team in the normal standings, looks to be the favorite, but it's a fun situation to see Tim, Josh, and Brett all have a fighting chance to compete for a little midseason moolah.
As usual, we will dive into some interesting week 7 stats today. But before we do, it may be a good juncture to take a look at the current consensus 2027 top prospects. With only 7 games left in the regular season, it's a good idea to familiarize yourself with the names of the top players in college football.
2027 Midseason First Round Mock Draft
- Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
- Jaden Baugh, RB, Florida
- Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
- Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
- Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
- KJ Duff, WR, Rutgers
- Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss (injured)
- Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
- Trey'Dez Green, TE, LSU
- CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
- Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
- Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia
- Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
- Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
NFL Week 7 — One Stat Per Game
New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30
Luther Burden III turned all four of his receptions into gains of 20-plus yards, producing a 100% explosive-reception rate and 32.5 yards per catch.
Burden's 130-yard performance wasn't built on target volume; Chicago repeatedly created or converted high-value downfield opportunities, including a 58-yard gain. The four-catch sample is too small to sustain that efficiency, but his expanding explosive-play role makes him increasingly valuable even when Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland command substantial opportunities.
Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10
Jaylen Warren created 71 of his 101 rushing yards after contact (70.3%) and forced five missed tackles, while adding 46 yards after the catch.
Pittsburgh's offense wasn't especially explosive, but Warren repeatedly manufactured yardage beyond what his blocking initially provided. His ability to create independently as both a runner and receiver supports a strong fantasy floor even when Aaron Rodgers operates a conservative passing attack.
San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29
Michael Penix Jr. faced pressure on only 17.1% of his dropbacks (6 of 35), the second-lowest rate of his career.
Atlanta's protection allowed Penix to execute a methodical offense that strung together four consecutive double-digit-play drives against previously undefeated San Francisco. If that protection holds up, Drake London and the Falcons' passing game should benefit from more sustainable drive volume and scoring opportunities rather than relying on isolated explosive plays.
Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13
Derrick Henry posted a 17.6% rushing success rate, with only three of 17 carries improving Baltimore's expected points; it was his second consecutive game below 25%.
This is now a two-week process problem, not simply a disappointing rushing total. Without Lamar Jackson's rushing threat, Baltimore is struggling to create advantageous situations for Henry, making his efficiency and touchdown outlook considerably more fragile until the offense changes its structure.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13
Tampa Bay called 48 runs against just 11 pass attempts, an 81.4% rushing share of those run/pass plays, while Bucky Irving produced 73 yards after contact.
The Buccaneers were comfortable letting their running game control the entire contest, minimizing Baker Mayfield's workload in his return from injury. This extreme split is partly blowout-driven, but it reinforces Irving's value when Tampa Bay plays from ahead and shows why Mayfield's passing volume may fluctuate sharply by matchup.
New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (OT)
J.J. McCarthy completed 8 of 13 throws outside the numbers for 169 yards (13.0 YPA), compared with 12 of 14 for 83 yards (5.9 YPA) on throws elsewhere.
McCarthy's first Giants start revealed an aggressive passing profile that can attack the boundaries rather than relying entirely on short, central throws. That is especially encouraging for Malik Nabers: more valuable downfield opportunities could sustain his WR1 ceiling without requiring an unsustainably large target count.
Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16
Minnesota blitzed Daniel Jones on 85.2% of his dropbacks—the highest single-game blitz rate of the Next Gen Stats era—and generated pressure on 60.9% of those blitzes.
Brian Flores didn't merely threaten pressure; he consistently delivered it, forcing Indianapolis to operate in a disrupted passing environment. Future opponents with vulnerable protection deserve downgrades, particularly receivers whose production depends on longer-developing routes.
Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25
Malik Willis generated approximately +0.50 EPA per dropback, compared with his previous baseline of +0.06—a 98th-percentile passing-efficiency performance.
Miami finally produced a passing game that added substantial value rather than forcing its rushing attack to carry the offense. Willis' efficiency will almost certainly regress, but his combination of improved passing decisions and rushing ability creates genuine fantasy upside if the offense can reproduce even part of this improvement.
Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24
Cleveland achieved a 62.5% rushing success rate on designed runs from under center, averaging 8.0 yards per carry from those formations—both season highs.
The Browns entered Week 7 using under-center formations less frequently than any NFL team, but this adjustment helped unlock a previously inefficient rushing attack. If Todd Monken increases that usage, Quinshon Judkins could benefit from better rushing conditions without needing a dramatic increase in carries.
Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16
Bo Nix averaged 11.3 yards per attempt from a clean pocket (11-of-16 for 181 yards), but just 3.2 YPA under pressure (4-of-13 for 41 yards).
Denver's passing ceiling remains highly dependent on protection: Nix can generate valuable opportunities when given time, but pressure dramatically reduces his efficiency. His 62-yard scramble provided a spectacular fantasy boost, yet the pocket split suggests caution when projecting Courtland Sutton and the Broncos' passing game against stronger pass rushes.
Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20
Green Bay generated -0.64 EPA per play on play-action dropbacks after entering the matchup averaging +0.32 EPA per play on play action—a deterioration of 0.96 expected points per play.
Play action had been one of the Packers' more efficient passing concepts, but Detroit effectively neutralized it while Green Bay's rushing attack also struggled. If opponents continue disrupting that connection between run threat and passing efficiency, Jordan Love's downfield production could become less consistent.
Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21
The Rams achieved a 60.0% rushing success rate, their best of the season, and recorded 16 successful man-blocking-concept runs—the most by any team in a game since at least 2018.
This wasn't simply Kyren Williams and Blake Corum accumulating yardage against a weak defense; Los Angeles repeatedly executed a specific blocking approach that created successful runs. If that formula persists, both backs could benefit from improved rushing efficiency, although the division of valuable opportunities between them remains important.
Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20
Patrick Mahomes faced pressure on 38.9% of his dropbacks and completed only 6 of 13 pressured passes for 44 yards, an interception and a 22.6 passer rating.
Seattle demonstrated that disrupting Mahomes doesn't necessarily require a large sack total: consistent pressure was enough to destroy the timing and efficiency of Kansas City's passing game. The Seahawks' defense deserves particular attention in future quarterback and receiver projections, especially against offenses with vulnerable pass protection.
Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21
Dallas ran the ball 38 times against 26 pass attempts—a 59.4% rushing share of those plays—after entering Week 7 with a league-low 32.5% season rushing rate.
That's a dramatic departure from an offense that had increasingly relied on Dak Prescott's passing volume. Javonte Williams' 155-yard performance showed the upside of a more balanced approach, but fantasy managers should monitor whether Dallas retains that commitment in competitive games rather than assuming a favorable second-half script represents a permanent philosophical change.
Alright, good luck as we enter the back half of the season. I know Andy loves entering all kinds of back halves.
Yours in Commissionership,
Doug