2026 Season Week 4

Dear Plerotic Members of the Dana Burger Dynasty League,

Week 3 is in the books, and we have another slate of injuries! It seems like this year is worse than previous years, but I think I say this every season. This week, we bid adieu to the following fantasy-relevant players:

• Devon Achane (ACL, out for season)
• Breece Hall (quad, week-to-week)
• Travis Etienne (hamstring, week-to-week)
• Baker Mayfield (dislocated thumb, week-to-week)
• Justin Jefferson (ankle, day-to-day)
• Mike Evans (rib, day-to-day)
• Jalen Coker (quad, questionable for week 4)
• Jalen McMillan (knee, week-to-week)
• Jack Bech (broken arm, IR)

Because of this, I am sure there will be some heavy waiver action this week! Players like Jalon Daniels (backup QB for TB) will be flying off the shelves. Good luck in your blind bidding!

Before we get into our weekly "one stat per game" fixture, this is a reminder that we begin our ** Mid-Season Tournament** ("The Dana Burger Cup"!) this week. Check out our league website for the bracket and results! The winner takes home a handsome $140!

NFL Week 3 — One Stat Per Game

Falcons 35 at Packers 14

Stat: Atlanta's 26 pass plays with Michael Penix Jr. produced roughly +9.5 EPA with a 65% success rate, while its rushing attack added roughly +12 EPA with a 64% success rate. Both phases were operating at an elite down-to-down level.

That's much more meaningful than Bijan Robinson and Drake London both approaching 200 yards. Penix's return appears to have restored the structural balance that makes this offense dangerous: defenses can't sell out against Bijan if Atlanta can remain this efficient through the air. London, Bijan and Penix all deserve an offensive-environment upgrade.

Chargers 16 at Bills 24

Stat: Los Angeles entered Sunday allowing -0.185 EPA per rush, eighth-best in the league, with only three explosive runs allowed through two games. James Cook then ran for 154 yards—including 77 yards on 11 fourth-quarter carries as Buffalo closed the game.

That makes Cook's performance considerably more impressive than the yardage alone. Buffalo wasn't merely exploiting a weak front; its rushing efficiency survived what had been one of the league's better run defenses. Cook is increasingly looking like an efficiency driver rather than a back dependent on Josh Allen creating favorable boxes.

Panthers 18 at Browns 21

Stat: Cleveland generated pressure on 51% of Bryce Young's dropbacks while blitzing on fewer than 30%, its third-highest pressure rate in a game since 2024. Nine Browns generated multiple pressures.

This is one defensive number worth carrying forward because it affects an entire opposing passing game. Cleveland can create pressure with four while leaving seven in coverage—the worst combination for fantasy quarterbacks because there aren't necessarily easy hot reads available when the pocket collapses.

Jets 24 at Lions 31

Stat: Against a Jets defense that blitzed him on 44.4% of his dropbacks, Jared Goff went 14-for-14 for 148 yards and a TD, +27.8% CPOE. He also went 11-of-13 for 181 yards off play action.

Those two splits tell us considerably more than Goff's final fantasy score. Blitzing Detroit is creating answers rather than problems, while play action remains devastating. Aggressive defenses shouldn't automatically be treated as bad Goff matchups if Ben Johnson's successor can keep producing answers this efficiently.

Texans 17 at Colts 19

Stat: Daniel Jones averaged 7.7 yards per attempt while pressured versus only 5.7 from a clean pocket.

That's an unusual inversion. Houston frequently disrupted Indianapolis' structure, but Jones still manufactured productive throws when plays broke down. It makes the Colts' passing game a little less dependent on pristine offensive-line play than we might have assumed—important with tougher fronts ahead.

Patriots 6 at Jaguars 35

Stat: Trevor Lawrence went 14-of-21 for 141 yards and three touchdowns against New England's zone coverage, while the Patriots generated pressure on just 18.2% of those zone dropbacks.

That's a schematic win rather than simply a good Lawrence box score. New England's four-man rush couldn't speed Lawrence up while keeping zone bodies behind it, allowing him to repeatedly find voids. If Jacksonville can punish zone this efficiently, opponents will increasingly have to choose between blitzing Lawrence or exposing themselves to the Jaguars' intermediate passing concepts.

Chiefs 24 at Dolphins 10

Stat: Kenneth Walker III forced 12 missed tackles on 18 carries and generated 16 rushing yards over expected; it was already his third game this season with at least 12 forced missed tackles.

That is a remarkable runner-driven efficiency profile. Kansas City's rushing production isn't simply coming from favorable boxes created by Patrick Mahomes—Walker is manufacturing yards himself at an elite rate. That makes his early-season breakout substantially more sustainable than raw yards per carry would suggest.

Titans 7 at Giants 12

Stat: Cam Skattebo rushed for only 60 yards—but Next Gen Stats credited him with 74 yards after contact. In other words, his aggregate production before contact was minus-14 yards.

That's a perfect example of why the box score lies. Skattebo is creating substantially more than New York's blocking is providing him, which supports his individual talent but puts a ceiling on rushing efficiency. His fantasy case is volume plus self-created yardage; improvement up front would create significant upside.

Bengals 27 at Steelers 30

Stat: Aaron Rodgers entered Week 3 0-for-9 on passes traveling 20-plus air yards. Against Cincinnati he went 2-of-5 for 61 yards—and both completions were touchdowns.

That's more significant than simply saying Rodgers threw three TDs. Pittsburgh finally demonstrated a viable vertical component after defenses had little reason to respect it through two weeks. If that continues, safeties can't compress underneath as aggressively, improving the environment for the entire Steelers offense.

Seahawks 31 at Commanders 33

Stat: Washington repeatedly isolated Terry McLaurin against Joshua Jobe: on 10 matchup snaps—seven in man coverage—McLaurin caught 3 of 4 targets for 42 yards and a TD. Even more tellingly, every one of McLaurin's receptions came from the left side of the formation.

That's useful matchup exploitation rather than target-share analysis. Washington identified where it could create the favorable one-on-one and repeatedly returned to it, suggesting McLaurin's weekly outlook may depend as much on where Kliff Kingsbury can move him against a secondary as on overall passing volume.

Cardinals 30 at 49ers 36

Stat: Jeremiyah Love averaged 1.7 yards before contact per carry and was contacted at or behind the line on only 28.6% of his runs—both easily his best blocking environment of the season.

That changes how I'd read his 90 rushing yards. Earlier struggles weren't simply Love failing to create; Arizona frequently gave him nowhere to go. When the blocking finally produced clean runway against a good San Francisco front, the efficiency appeared immediately. That's encouraging for Love's rest-of-season ceiling.

Vikings 23 at Buccaneers 16

Stat: Kyler Murray actually performed far better under pressure—3-of-7 for 72 yards and a TD—than from a clean pocket, where he went 12-of-22 for 96 yards, an interception and just 4.4 yards per attempt.

That's a strange but revealing split. Minnesota's passing problem wasn't primarily protection; Murray struggled executing the offense even when Tampa didn't disrupt him. Coming off the layoff and entering a new Kevin O'Connell offense, that's a reason to monitor processing, timing and accuracy before assuming the passing game is fully operational.

Raiders 35 at Saints 27

Stat: Las Vegas entered Week 3 ranked 29th in rushing EPA/play (-0.245) against a Saints defense ranked 27th in rushing EPA allowed—and Ashton Jeanty still managed only 56 rushing yards.

That's increasingly difficult to dismiss as matchup noise. The Raiders have scored 27, 26 and 35 points, yet the conventional rushing game remains inefficient even in favorable conditions. For fantasy, this looks much more like a Cousins/Bowers-driven scoring environment than one where team success automatically guarantees an Ashton Jeanty rushing breakout.

Ravens 34 at Cowboys 31

Stat: Baltimore missed 13 tackles against Dallas after missing only six in each of its first two games. Those misses helped the Cowboys generate 415 yards, including 148 on the ground.

That's the second defensive trend I'd carry forward. Baltimore's reputation could cause fantasy managers to reflexively downgrade opposing skill players, but deteriorating tackling creates extra YAC and yards after contact independent of coverage quality. One game is not a trend yet; another like it would be.

Rams 26 at Broncos 30

Stat: Denver's pressure rate against Matthew Stafford exploded from 23.5% in the first half to 57.7% in the second. Stafford finished 25-of-35 for 329 yards and two TDs from clean pockets but just 5-of-18 for 61 yards and an interception under pressure.

That's a huge efficiency cliff. The Rams' passing game is still capable of producing elite numbers, but pass protection is becoming the variable that determines whether Stafford can sustain them. Offensive-line matchup should therefore matter more when projecting Davante Adams—and eventually Puka Nacua—than simply looking at the opposing secondary.

Eagles 7 at Bears 27

Stat: Ben Johnson put Chicago under center on 58% of its offensive plays, its highest rate since Week 14 of 2025. From there, Case Keenum repeatedly played on schedule: he went 14-of-20 for 145 yards and two TDs when releasing the ball in under 2.5 seconds.

That's much more interesting than “Case Keenum threw two touchdowns.” Chicago fundamentally altered the geometry and timing of the offense for its backup—more Goff-style rhythm football, fewer extended creations—and it worked. If Johnson carries some of that structure back to Caleb Williams, whose average time to throw had ballooned to 3.42 seconds, it could improve the efficiency of the entire Bears passing game.

That's it for this week! Good luck next week, and spend that money!

Yours in Football,
Doug